Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares
We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for large events predictions. Our res...
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This paper is a pedagogical introduction to avalanche models of solar flares, including a comprehensive review of recent modeling efforts and directions. This class of flare model is built on a recent paradigm in statistical physics, known as self-organized criticality. The basic idea is that flares are the result of an ‘avalanche’ of small-scale magnetic reconnection events cascading through a...
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Data assimilation techniques, developed in the last two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the possibility of applying the data-assimilation techniques known as 4D-VAR to the prediction of solar flares. We do so in the context of a continuous version of the...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Solar Physics
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0038-0938,1573-093X
DOI: 10.1007/s11207-014-0570-2